Results

What?

The Nature Value Explorer provides per ecosystem service (if method available):

• A graph with a score for the current and future (scenario) delivery of ecosystem services, including the difference between the two. This score indicates the importance of the area for the provision of the ecosystem service compared to other areas in Flanders. And shows the size of the change between current and future scenario for the area.
• A graph showing the biological value of the current and future area. This score indicates how the area can increase its biological value in the future and also how rare the area is in Flanders.
• A quantification in biophysical terms of the current and future provision of ecosystem services. These figures say something about the change in the provision of ecosystem services.
• A quantification in euros based on available economic valuation figures. These figures indicate the difference in (known) economic value between the current and future scenario.
• Dashboard: the quantified ecosystem services are converted into indicators that are easier to understand. They are displayed on a printable dashboard.

All results plus the input data and key figures used can also be downloaded in a CSV or Excel format.

How to use?

The results of the Nature Value Explorer are to a certain extent spatially explicit because they take into account the underlying local factors. But these are still based on statistical functions generic for Belgium and should not be interpreted as absolute real values that are actually delivered. They are an estimate of what ecosystems provide buth with an uncertainty.

The results are mainly intended to make a comparison between different areas (How do the areas differ in the provision of ecosystem services?) and to understand changes within an area (Which ecosystem services are provided more/which less?). The interpretation of the results must therefore primarily focus on existing and potential differences and trends and how these are spatially distributed within the area rather than on the absolute quantities and values provided by a particular area.

The manual and the web tool help to make the socio-economic benefits of ecosystems visible. They provide values that can be used in decision tools such as an environmental impact assessment, a cost-effectiveness analysis, or a cost-benefit analysis. They provide an opportunity to assess indicative (positive or negative) impacts on green space, using methods that are useful to many potential users. They can help to justify certain choices/investments for nature conservation and nature management and when choosing between alternative locations, design and/or some management methods with regard to the (re)development of nature in rural areas.

The results, as explained in the limitations, only reflect part of the ecosystem services provided by an area. Therefore, in addition to these results, it is important to use participatory methods and expand them with both qualitative data and information about biodiversity.

We would like to emphasize that the proposed calculations provide a rough estimate of the various benefits provided by an ecosystem. If an ecosystem service appears to be very important or raises discussions among stakeholders, we recommend using more detailed ecological and/or economic modeling. Suitable more detailed models are shown for each service.

We would also like to emphasize that the figures provide an assessment from an anthropocentric point of view. Ecosystem services do not necessarily say anything about the biological/ecological importance of certain ecosystems for plant and animal species or about the rarity of certain ecosystem services in our country. Upon request of our users, we have added a score for the biological value based on the analysis from the Biological Valuation Map to ensure that this value is not forgotten in the debates.

Use in a SCBA

The results of the calculations are useful to estimate the impact of projects on ecosystem services and compare them with other impacts. This is classically done in a social cost-benefit analysis or SCBA. With an SCBA, both the costs and benefits of a particular policy/project are calculated from the point of view of the entire society and weighed against each other. There is a positive contribution to the level of prosperity if the project results in an increase in total prosperity, regardless of the distribution over people or areas.

Take, for example, that the costs and benefits of constructing transport infrastructure are compared in an SCBA. The physical impact of a project on a landscape and the ecosystem services generated by this landscape can be determined using the methods described in previous chapters. Other effects such as the impact of a change in transport flows on the environment and the economy are not discussed in this manual. For this we refer to the "Standard methodology for SCBA of transport infrastructure projects", which was developed by the Department of Mobility and Public Works (MOW) and will appear on the website of the Nature Value Explorer as soon as it is made available to the public.

To apply the results of this manual and the web tool in a SCBA, a number of additional calculations are required. We explain these in this chapter. In the web tool, these steps, except for the adjustment to the price level, are automatically calculated if you use the "use in MKBA" button. You can have a total updated value calculated here as well as an annual value over a certain period of time (when exporting the result).

Evolution of benefits over time

Benefits evolve over time. For example, the noise-reducing effect of forests does not start immediately when new forests are created, nor does the annual additional carbon storage in the soil systematically decrease over time as a new equilibrium situation is reached.

How benefits evolve over time is systematically shown for all ecosystem services. If this is not explicitly discussed, we assume that the benefits remain constant over time.

The calculation is currently no longer included in the web tool. The Nature Value Explorer will provide the opportunity to calculate annual benefits over a defined time period. This time period is the lifespan of your project. By default this is done for a period of 100 years, but if desired you can vary the period of time up to a maximum of 500 years.

The calculation is made from the year in which the implementation of the project starts: the starting year.

In addition to specific evolutions per service, economic growth will have an effect on ecosystem services, both for quantification and for valuation. Within economic growth we distinguish demographic growth and growth in productivity or purchasing power per head. This growth can be further distinguished from the evolution of the price level.

Correction for demographic growth

The extent of certain ecosystem services will evolve with population growth. This is, for example, the case for cultural services. For some regulating services such as effects on air quality or noise pollution, the value of the service is related to the number of people exposed or bothered. Population growth will therefore increase the value of these services. For provisioning services, there is a link between demographic growth and demand for certain goods and therefore also market prices, but this is indirect and difficult to predict on the basis of population evolution.

The table below provides an overview for the Flemish region for the coming decades up to 2060 (based on estimates from the Federal Planning Bureau and ADSEI (General Directorate of Statistics and Economic Information) (FPB ADSEI 2011).

Table: key figures for demographic evolution (growth per year, Flemish region)

Period	Demographic growth (%/year)
2010-2020	0.70%
2020-2030	0.48%
2030-2040	0.32%
2040-2050	0.30%
2050-2060	0.28%

After 2060, the population will be kept constant at the 2060 level.

This evolution is relevant to the services below and can be applied by multiplying the calculated quantity or value by the growth rate for the period under consideration:

Regulating services

• Improving air quality: to be applied to a key figure for rating.
• Reducing noise pollution: to be applied to the calculated number of houses.
• Carbon storage: has already been included in the evolution of the key figure for valuation.

Cultural services

• Total cultural services: to be applied to number of households.
• Experience value: to be applied to the number of visits.
• Non-use value: to be applied to the number of households.

Correction for growth in productivity and evolution in purchasing power

In line with other benefits, the benefits of ecosystems also increase over the years due to growth in productivity and an increase in purchasing power. Economic growth means that more resources are available to the government and citizens, which increases the willingness to pay for nature and also increases the costs made to achieve environmental goals.

In accordance with the Standard SCBA methodology, we recommend working with an annual growth of 1.4%. This is equal to the forecast of the average growth of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita in Belgium over the period 2010-2060 used by the Study Committee on Aging (2011).

The growth in purchasing power is cumulative with demographic growth and is applied to all services. For carbon storage, this evolution has already been taken into account in the evolution of the key figure for valuation.

Factor Cost vs. market prices

Private consumers experience benefits as an increase in their net disposable income. The purchasing power of this net disposable income is expressed in market prices, because consumers pay market prices for goods and services. The standard methodology states that the monetary values of the SCBA are expressed in factor costs. (By factor costs we mean the costs associated with the use of the production factors: wages, profit, rent and interest.) The difference between market prices and factor costs consists of product-related indirect taxes and subsidies (i.e. mainly VAT and excise duties).

All costs and benefits expressed in market prices must be divided by (1+t) to convert them into factor costs. For ecosystem services, this is only the case for cultural services. Costs and benefits for companies and governments are already expressed in factor costs and do not need to be adjusted. This applies to provisioning and regulating services.

The average rate of net indirect taxes (t) is 17% according to the SCBA standard methodology.

Discount and discount rate

Benefits are discounted or actualized at a social discount rate. This means that we take into account that benefits that only occur over a longer period of time weigh less heavily than benefits in the current year. This reflects, on the one hand, that we cannot, in the meantime, use (lend) the money we receive later for other purposes and, on the other hand, that people value the same benefit less if it comes later in time (for example because of the associated uncertainty). Economic science does not provide an unequivocal answer about the exact level of the social discount rate. The social discount rate is lower than the private discount rate as used, for example, for the financial analysis of industrial projects. Recently, a discount rate that decreases over time has also been used for projects with a long lifespan.

In accordance with recommendations from the Flemish government (LNE, 2008) and the social discount rate proposed in the standard SCBA methodology for infrastructure projects, we propose to use a discount rate of 4%. In addition, it is advisable to perform a sensitivity analysis for values of 2.5% and 5% per year. Lower and sometimes even negative discount rates are also often used for ecosystem services (TEEB 2010, Baumgartner et al. 2012). In the UK National Ecosystem Assessment, for example, sensitivity analyzes were carried out to evaluate policy alternatives (UK NEA Technical Report, Chapter 26, p. 183 - http://uknea.unep-wcmc.org/Resources/tabid/82/Default.aspx).

We discount to a specific year in the Nature Value Explorer: the update year. This is the year in which the SCBA is drawn up. This year also serves as a basis for converting the updated value to the correct price level.

If we add up all the actualized benefits, we obtain the total net present value of the ecosystem services of the project.

Corrections for price level

The Nature Value Explorer explores the value of ecosystem services for one year. For use in a SCBA, prices must be adjusted to the price level of the other costs and benefits. The prices in the Nature Value Explorer are based on 2019 price levels.

The evolution of the general price level is measured with the "General index of consumer prices" published by the General Directorate of Statistics and Economic Information, and can be found on the FPS Economy. The use of the above-mentioned index is required for the adjustment of key figures in this manual for the evolution of the price level between the base year of the key figure on the one hand, and the base year of the SCBA on the other. The method in which this must be done has been taken from the SCBA Standard Methodology.

The following formula is used:

Formula

k_t = k_s x CPI_t / CPI_s

whereby:

s = base year of key figure, in this case 2019;
t = base year of SCBA (t>s);
ks = value of key figure in year s;
kt = value of key figure in year t;
CPIs = value of consumer price index in year s;
CPIt= value of the consumer price index in year t.